A black swan similar to 9/11 may reappear

Twenty-four years now, the world is now separated from the apocalypse in New York and Washington - on September 11, 2001, planes hijacked by Islamic terrorists from al-Qaeda crashed into the towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon building. A black swan, an unpredictable and unexpected event with a global impact, has arrived before the eyes of the whole world.

In the dramatic days of September 2001, most of the world showed solidarity with the United States. They have gained support for an attack on Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, which was a terrorist base. They managed to destroy them, but the Taliban survived. After twenty years of efforts to "democratize" the country under the Hindu Kush, the Americans and their allies finally let him back into power. Hundreds of billions of dollars and numerous casualties on the part of both the armies of NATO member states and Afghans have been wasted.

This, along with the failure in Iraq, became a symbol of the failure of America's global war on terror, which was triggered by the decision of the administration of US President George W. Bush.

In the words of Professor Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University, the first few years after 9/11 marked "an era when the United States made fundamental strategic mistakes," and its vision of fighting terrorism was clouded by anger and revenge.

The Islamic State, which grew out of the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda, proved to be even more ruthless, which is still felt by Europeans today. The refugee wave from the collapsed Middle East has contributed to the destabilization of the internal politics of a number of European countries, especially in Germany and France. Terrorist attacks of both large and small scales are the order of the day.

Islamist groups of various types are beginning to have the upper hand in the African Sahel and West Africa, and they are still operating in South Asia.

Two years ago, Israel experienced its September 11 with a brutal terrorist attack by the Palestinian movement Hamas on its territory. But Israel's two-year effort to eliminate it through the war in Gaza is a source of further instability in the Middle East.

An illustration of the powerlessness in the fight against terrorists are the attacks by the Yemeni Houthis, allies of Hamas, on naval ships sailing in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It didn't stop them either the U.S. Navy.

And it is questionable whether the Islamists who overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad last year can be trusted in the West to "improve" and to ensure the democratization of Syria. Rather, the trend that non-state actors with a terrorist background play an excessive role in geopolitics is confirmed.

In addition, it cannot be ruled out that terrorist organizations of various types may commit another spectacular terrorist attack even with the use of new technologies. After all, drones today provide endless possibilities.

After almost a quarter of a century since the American September 11, the black swan may sail again against the background of the intensified international situation with two war conflicts.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily