Bad news from Washington for Kiev and Europe

The Pentagon's suspension of Patriot air defense missile deliveries and other precision munitions to Ukraine caught Ukrainians and their allies by surprise. It was justified by the reduction of their stocks due to supplies to Kiev and operations in the Middle East. The background is also said to be an effort to ensure the transfer of weapons primarily to the Pacific so that the US can better confront China.

In Washington, there is talk of a unilateral decision by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth without consulting the White House, and it is also argued that there are actually enough stocks. However, Trump's spokeswoman stated that assistance to other countries around the world was given priority to the US.

In any case, the decision and the disputes over it come at a time when the Russians are intensifying air strikes on Ukraine and negotiations between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are not leading to an end to the conflict. Trump is "disillusioned" with Putin's approach, with his mantra that Russia is not giving up its goals in Ukraine,

But it is unclear whether he will be pressured. He did not commit to further arms aid to Ukraine, the "big beautiful law" on taxes and spending that he signed on July 4th did not provide aid to Ukraine.

He told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he wanted to help Kiev with air defense and would check what had actually been suspended. And over the weekend he added that he would continue to help Ukraine, adding that it was a difficult situation and "we'll see what happens next."

In Washington, they can think about the sustainability of Ukraine's defense. The Ukrainians are only fighting retreats on the front with the threat of permanent encirclements. The Russians are still advancing, albeit slowly, and at the cost of considerable losses. The Financial Times predicts that Kiev has the resources to defend itself for only six months if it does not receive further major military aid. Russia, on the other hand, can attack for another year. Another problem for Ukraine is the lack of soldiers and the broken morale of the population from the endless war. It does not see a clear "vision of victory" or at least the end of the war. But the Ukrainian leadership cannot do that. The conclusion is gloomy: Western officials speak of the risk of "catastrophic defeat."

The decision of the most influential global investment company BlackRock not to participate in financing the reconstruction of Ukraine due to uncertainty about its future is also a negative signal.

The uncertainty is also confirmed by an unexpected phone call from French President Emmanuel Macron to Putin, who apparently probed the possibilities of dialogue with the Kremlin.

But the fate of Ukraine depends on Trump. His decisions may also be influenced by broader geopolitical interests. Will it need Putin's help in resolving another potential crisis in the Middle East? It is true that the situation here also diverts attention and resources from Ukraine, which helps Russia.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily