China enters the Middle East conflict

On Monday, US President Donald Trump launched Operation "Project Freedom", which was supposed to "clean up the Strait of Hormuz". It was introduced as a "service to the world" by the US Navy, which will ensure the safe passage of more than 1,550 cargo vessels with 22,000 sailors.

After 48 hours, when only two ships were escorted, Trump suspended the operation. The reason? Allegedly a request from Pakistan and other countries in order to complete and sign a peace agreement.

Whether this was really the case is not clear. But a one-page memorandum on ending the war is to be on the table - it can be negotiated, although Trump also warns the Iranians that if no agreement is reached, he will start bombing them again.

Let's take it with a grain of salt. Since the announcement of the ceasefire on April 8 in the Persian Gulf, the Americans have avoided the possibility of an escalation of the conflict, despite the fact that occasional armed clashes with the Iranians continued. They also took place after the start of Operation "Project Freedom".

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, said that "at the moment, everything is below the threshold of resuming military operations." Nevertheless, the line between restraint and escalation remains very thin. However, both the Iranians and the Americans are aware that a return to "total war" is not a recipe for success.

But now it is important to ask what is behind the sudden American U-turn with the suspension of the naval operation. It is very likely Trump's meeting in China with its leader Xi Jinping next week. China could certainly play a significant role in resolving the conflict, after all, Trump has hinted several times in recent weeks that Beijing has helped bring Tehran to the negotiating table.

Yesterday in Beijing, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and his counterpart Wang Yi discussed "bilateral relations, regional and international developments." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed hope that Beijing will exert its influence on Tehran to loosen its "stranglehold grip on the strait," which may also be in China's interest, as China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil.

Despite this, Beijing may also want something from Washington.

Minister Araqchi is now sending a message to Washington that "there is no military solution to the political crisis" and that "the US must be careful not to be dragged back into the swamp."

Nevertheless, both sides of the conflict are under pressure and both must think pragmatically. American analysts are wondering how long it will take for the rise in inflation in the US triggered by the events in the Strait of Hormuz to force Trump to back down. It is also risky for the Iranian leadership that the economy will be further ruined by the war.

But getting to some kind of "peaceful compromise" will still be complicated. However, the whole world is impatiently waiting for the resolution of the conflict.

The economic cost of war is already considerable.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily