European support for Ukraine is theoretical
A recent Paris conference of the coalition of the willing declared its readiness to participate in strong security guarantees for Ukraine.
The basis is to send peacekeepers to support the Ukrainian army. 26 countries have committed to this. The troops are not to be deployed on the front line and will be sent to Ukraine after a ceasefire or peace. But that is not on the horizon.
Therefore, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, there are no concrete plans for military deployment yet.
Sources told The Financial Times that it is supposed to be a relatively modest contingent of thirty thousand soldiers who are supposed to operate in the Ukrainian rear in order to deter Russia from another invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomes the promise of support and plans to fulfill it, but he is probably aware that it has its limits. At a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron before the start of the Paris meeting, he said that he believed in the support, but added that today he looks "theoretical". It captures the real state of affairs.
The attitude of the US to European intentions is also important. After the meeting of the coalition of the willing, there was a phone call with President Donald Trump, as American support is crucial for the operation of peacekeepers.
But Trump has not promised anything specific and has not responded to European demands for tighter anti-Russian sanctions, which should force the Kremlin to negotiate peace with Zelensky.
Trump is clearly playing his own game, and we still don't know exactly what he could have agreed on with Putin in Alaska. At the moment, however, he distances himself from direct military support for Ukraine and the provision of any guarantees in the event of a new war. And he is willing to supply weapons to Kyiv for the money of the Europeans at a ten percent markup - so this matter moves to the sphere of "military trade", not geopolitics. At the same time, Europeans must perceive that the Pentagon has announced the end of various military assistance programs for the armies of NATO member states located along the Russian border.
This may also cause complications for Europe in providing further support to Ukraine. The announcement by EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas after a recent informal meeting of foreign ministers about the "colossal shortage of funds to finance Ukraine in EU member states" should not be forgotten either.
The disturbing mosaic is complemented by uncertainty about further developments in France. The next French prime minister, François Bayrou, is expected to fall on Monday - over unpopular measures to reduce the budget deficit. After that, chaos may ensue in France - according to Politico.
And Macron, one of the main movers of the coalition of the willing, will be politically paralyzed because of this.
For Kiev, these reports of uncertainties in its European rear are not exactly encouraging.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily