Even the death of another Iranian leader will not end the conflict
The assassination of the head of Iran's Security Council, Ali Larijani, is another act in the Iranian drama. He is the highest-ranking figure in Iran to die since the start of the war after Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In fact, Iran's entire pre-war leadership has already been eliminated – the number of top Iranian officials killed by Israel since the beginning of the conflict is already ten.
It is worth noting that this procedure is not liked by a NATO member country – Muslim Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that "political assassinations committed by Israel, including the murders of Iranian statesmen and politicians, constitute illegal acts in violation of the laws of war."
In any case, the elimination of key Iranian leaders shows that Israel still retains intelligence capabilities to monitor the movements of Iranian leadership officials in Tehran and can use them, along with near-total US control of Iranian airspace, to launch strikes at will against other selected regime personas.
Larijani was a strange figure. Even after the appointment of the new Ayatollah Mojtab Khamenei, who is "invisible", he was considered the de facto ruler of the country. It is believed that he was responsible for the brutal suppression of large-scale Iranian protests against the regime in January and that he was now directing combat operations for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
It should be noted, however, that he has long been considered one of the most pragmatic faces of the Iranian establishment, helping to lead talks on Iran's nuclear program with the West, and many experts have even suggested that Larijani was one of the few members of the Iranian leadership open to diplomatic negotiations. Over time, however, his image changed.
Just hours after U.S. and Israeli strikes took Khamenei's life, Larijani issued a statement warning that Iran would make its enemies "regret" what it had done and promised a strong response.
And on Monday, he called on Muslims around the world to support Iran in the fight, and called on the leaders of the Gulf countries to explain why they continue to allow the use of American bases on their territory to attack Iran.
His death will weaken the regime, but whether there will be any change of course is a question. In practice, we can see that the regime has been preparing for a war clash for a very long time. It has amassed a huge number of drones and other weapons, which gives it a long-term advantage. It wages an asymmetric war against the Americans, as evidenced by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with immeasurable economic consequences, and it also attacks the wealthy Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf.
US President Donald Trump does not know how to deal with it yet. Some experts have even expressed a gloomy prognosis that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in particular may operate autonomously without instructions from the center. The war may thus last for a very long time.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily