How far is peace in Ukraine now

Progress has been made in negotiations with Russia in Abu Dhabi, which is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is ready to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. He wants to discuss with him disputed territorial issues and the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. In an interview with the Yevropeyskaya Pravda newspaper, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said this.

Putin's adviser Yuri Ushakov said that the Kremlin was willing to meet. But it has two conditions: it will take place in Moscow, and the meeting will be thoroughly prepared. For Zelensky, it is difficult to imagine that the meeting would take place at Putin's. This would probably be understood as a partial surrender.

However, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are now talking about direct dialogue with Putin. Macron said the EU could not afford not to have a direct channel of communication with Moscow when the US had one.

This is also confirmed in Abu Dhabi. In the first round of negotiations between the Ukrainians and the Russians, US President Donald Trump's proxies Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were "assisted". Europe was not invited to join them.

The Americans are no longer expected to be at the February 1 negotiations, but according to the British newspaper The Financial Times, they are supposed to ask the Ukrainians to agree to the cession of about 20 percent of the territory of Donbass, which the Russians did not conquer.

This will be a condition for providing post-war security guarantees to Ukraine.

A White House spokeswoman called it a lie, as the American goal is to mediate negotiations between the opposing parties. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed at a US Senate hearing that the negotiations in Abu Dhabi were narrowed down to the issue of territorial claims.

Although territorial concessions are still unacceptable to Zelensky, there is criticism of his negotiating tactics at home from part of the political elite. He argues that Ukraine is on the verge of a nationwide energy blackout after Russian attacks. Another round of exhausting war, in which the Russians could eventually have the upper hand even by advancing in Donbass, could have fatal consequences for Ukrainian statehood. It is therefore more tactical to make concessions on something in order to reach a peace agreement and thus protect it.

Zelensky's government is faced with a difficult dilemma. In addition, Europe no longer has a strong lever to put the brakes on the White House's pressure on Ukraine to give in to the Russians in many ways. After the conflict with Trump over Greenland, when the fate of NATO was also at stake, it will be more cautious and it is probably not in its interest to further escalate relations with the US.

Kyiv also received another blow: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz rejected Ukraine's "accelerated accession" to the EU in 2027. And Trump may want to achieve an "imperfect peace" like Gaza in order to overcome domestic troubles with government violence in Minneapolis.

Thus, the peace prospects remain very foggy for Kyiv.  

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily