How to read the signal from the deck of Air Force One? The world watches Trump's balancing act between peace and war

On his way back to Washington from his visit to Beijing, US President Donald Trump said that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would like to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened and that he agrees that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. But this is nothing revolutionary, China has made such a statement before.

Ahead of Trump's visit, Iran's ambassador to China stressed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should not be seen as a step against legitimate trade or the interests of strategic partners, but as a response to an imposed war by the US and Israel. Iran simply sees the blockade of the strait as a lever in negotiations with the US. Could Tehran give up this leverage under pressure from Beijing?

Middle East Eye analysts said Xi is reluctant to invest his political capital in influencing Tehran beyond his narrow interests in the region. In addition, he does not want to be perceived as someone who associates himself with the US.

Similarly, Trump may be in a similar situation, who is reluctant to give the impression that he is dependent on Chinese aid.

However, the markets are nervous about the illegible situation: the price of Brent crude oil rose sharply on Friday, selling at $108 per barrel. Experts warn of a deepening of the energy crisis. Gasoline prices in the US have risen by 50 percent since the beginning of the conflict and are now attacking the "psychological" threshold of five dollars per gallon.

From the beginning of March to the end of April, global oil inventories decreased by about 4.8 million barrels per day, the largest reduction in inventories in the history of the International Energy Agency's observations. According to her, the global system can reach "operational stress levels" as early as June, and by September the near-minimal level of reserves needed to operate pipelines, refineries and export infrastructure. To be honest, travel agencies should probably not be calm with their air tours to the sea...

Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social network on Friday morning Chinese time that his military campaign against Iran "will continue!". It was followed by another message: "The clock is ticking for Iran and they had better get moving, FAST, otherwise nothing will be left of them." On Saturday, he met with his national security team to discuss the next steps.

But is military escalation the right recipe to end the conflict? After all, U.S. military officials admit that they are concerned that Iran has already restored access to most missile bases and launchers, including underground. This includes 30 bases along the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens American warships. Iranian officials have already said that they are ready for the resumption of fighting.

Therefore, one thing should not escape attention. Trump sent another signal to Tehran from aboard Air Force One as he returned home from Beijing: he is open to negotiations on a 20-year halt to Iran's nuclear program. Therefore, it no longer demands a complete ban, but a moratorium. Could this be the basis for a compromise on a peace agreement and an end to the war?

In any case, the "Iran game" continues with Trump's announcement on Monday that he has postponed the resumption of U.S. strikes on him indefinitely because "serious negotiations" are underway.

After 12 weeks of war, the only certainty remains the uncertainty of what the conflict may result in. 

Miloš Balabán, Lidovky.cz