India and Pakistan teeter on the brink of war
After the terrorist attack in Kashmir on April 22, in which 26 Indian tourists died, India and Pakistan have once again come to the brink of war. The background to the attack is not yet completely clear, but it is true that the Pakistani government does not currently have terrorist groups of various Muslim shades under control. India responded with missile strikes on "terrorist bases" in Pakistan as part of Operation Sindoor, which responded by shooting down several Indian fighter jets. There are dead and wounded on both sides.
Thus continues the dramatic story of the long-standing dispute over the territory, which was divided between Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan after the end of British India in 1947. Two wars have already been fought over it and several conflicts of lesser intensity have erupted. This also reflects the strategic value of Kashmir. For example, Pakistani agriculture is completely dependent on the water of the Indus River, which flows through Kashmir. Islamabad is receiving signals from Delhi that the India-Pakistan agreement on its use could be revised with displeasure. In addition, information has recently emerged that there are significant reserves of rare minerals in Kashmir.
The key question now is whether there could be an escalation of war between the two countries, which possess nuclear weapons – each has 150 warheads. In this context, the scenario from the American Princeton University from 2019 sounds quite chilling: a terrorist attack on Indian government officials in 2025 will trigger a large-scale conflict with catastrophic consequences if nuclear weapons were used extensively. It could kill between 50 and 125 million people.
The last conflict over Kashmir took place in 2019. But according to security experts, both countries tried to avoid a major conventional conflict and nuclear crisis with a carefully calibrated use of force.
Will it happen again? Much depends on India. A serious military conflict could threaten its global attractiveness as a rising power. It is the most populous country in the world with a rapidly growing economic potential, the fifth largest economy in the world. At the same time, it is skillfully developing an "all-out" policy between the US, China and Russia. It is therefore not surprising that the Indian government has called the military action against Pakistan a "precision strike" that was "focused, deliberate and non-escalating in nature".
Security expert Sushant Singh warns in Foreign Affairs against an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict triggered by political passions with calls for revenge in both India and Pakistan. According to him, the space for compromise is narrowing. Both countries are effectively becoming hostages to regional instability. The war in Ukraine and Gaza could lead to another serious conflict with unpredictable consequences.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily