Israel and Iran teeter on the brink of another major war
The Israeli attack on Iran is the third action to eliminate the nuclear ambitions of its Middle Eastern enemies. In 1981, the Israeli Air Force destroyed the nuclear reactor in Osirak, Iraq, and eighteen years ago, the construction of a nuclear facility in Syria.
But Iran has advanced the furthest with its nuclear program. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency states that in recent weeks it has significantly increased the production of weapons-grade uranium.
Tehran has 409 kilograms of uranium with a purity of 60 percent, and within two weeks it could be up to 90 percent. Experts say that it would take several months, at most a year, to produce a nuclear bomb.
Perhaps that is why the Israelis have struck now. However, it is still unclear whether the Israeli attacks have completely disrupted Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon.
The Americans sent signals that an attack was coming. In early June, US President Donald Trump discussed the Iranian nuclear program with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by phone, in addition to the Ukrainian attack on Russian strategic air force bases. Perhaps that is why Putin now spoke with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Massoud Peshmerga, offering himself as a "mediator" to settle the conflict.
The "harmonization of notes" between the Americans and Russians was also confirmed by another phone call between the two leaders on Saturday.
Trump is not having it easy. Even though he stated that the US knew everything about the Israeli attacks, he still tried to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran before them. Also with business interests in mind, as his trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates showed.
US diplomat Daniel B. Shapiro wrote in Foreign Affairs that Trump asked Netanyahu for additional time for nuclear negotiations. however, he did not give it to him. Now they are on ice.
The conflict is escalating. It turns out that some of Iran's ballistic missiles are capable of overcoming Israeli air defenses, and according to the Times of Israel, they even hit the main Israeli military headquarters.
Tehran announces attacks on American bases, scenarios are calculated with the acceleration of the production of an Iranian nuclear bomb or the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu announces further deadly strikes on Iran, the Israeli Air Force attacks Tehran.
On the one hand, Trump considers the Israeli action acceptable, but on the other hand, he cannot stand Netanyahu dragging him into a regional war that threatens American interests on other fronts. He cannot like the increase in oil prices, the dissatisfaction of Americans with their involvement in another war, or the paralysis of relations with key Arab powers.
What is certain is that the conflict continues to distract Americans from the war in Ukraine and potentially narrows the resources the US can provide to Kiev. The same may be true for Europe: two parallel wars in its neighborhood may already be beyond its capacity.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily