Israel's Conflict with Iran Testifies to Russia

The summit of the most economically powerful countries of the West, the G7, which began in Alberta, Canada, on Sunday, was supposed to be dominated by Russia's war against Ukraine and US President Donald Trump's tariff war against trading partners. Instead, the conclave of Western leaders had to focus mainly on the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Trump left the summit early because of this, but before that he had called on the G7 leader to "broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East."

What do we see so far after five days of conflict? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is playing a high-stakes game. He wants to destroy Iran's nuclear program, significantly weaken Iran's air defenses and its ability to attack Israel with ballistic missiles. He also aims to overthrow the Iranian regime. A number of senior military officials have already been physically eliminated, and the possibility of killing the supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is not ruled out. But this rather unites the Iranians in their opposition to Israel.

The rival parties are currently exchanging missile strikes. Israel has superiority in air power and missile forces, but it will be difficult to defeat Iran from the air alone.

Despite its weaker position, Iran has proven that its missiles can partially overcome strong Israeli air defenses and even hit sensitive targets on the country's territory. According to Western media, Israel also does not have weapons that could destroy Iranian nuclear facilities located deep underground.

The only way to achieve the ultimate goal - overthrowing the regime - would be through a ground operation. However, it does not seem realistic, even with hypothetical American support. The Americans know very well how they stumbled upon the invasion of Iraq 22 years ago.

And the Israelis have so far been unable to defeat Hamas's ground operations in Gaza, despite their overwhelming superiority. And they are even still threatened by the Yemeni Houthis, who have occasionally fired rockets at Israel.

Reshaping the Middle East in Israel's interests solely through military means is unrealistic. Serious political shifts cannot be ignored. Johns Hopkins University professor Vali Nasr wrote in Foreign Affairs that twenty months after the start of the Gaza war, Tehran appears to be a lesser threat to the Arab world, while the opposite is true for Israel.

And the geopolitical power curves of the Middle East also show that all the power to "contain" the conflict lies with the US – Israel's main ally – and with Russia and China – Iran's allies. Trump's statement that he is open to Putin becoming a mediator between the Iranian and Israeli sides says a lot.

Trump wants to force Iran to sign a new nuclear deal, and Russia could be a good fit for that.
However, Moscow is paradoxically profiting from the conflict due to the sharp increase in oil prices. The complicated Middle East game continues.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily