Istanbul talks are approaching, but the end of the war is still in the fog

A complex diplomatic game has been played out in recent days around the war in Ukraine, in which there is no shortage of twists and surprises.

On Saturday, in Kiev, the leaders of Germany, France, Britain and Poland and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed on a proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. They called on Russia to accept it. US President Donald Trump was also expected to agree. Europeans assumed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not accept the proposal, which was supposed to convince Trump to be tougher on the Kremlin than before. The rejection was supposed to lead to deepening sanctions on Russia and on countries that cooperate with it (the imposition of tariffs of 500 percent was also to be considered), the provision of additional weapons to Ukraine and permission for Ukrainians to strike deep into Russian territory.

Putin did indeed reject the ceasefire, but at the same time responded with a counter-move: he proposed holding direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul on May 15. The European-Ukrainian reaction was clear: first a ceasefire, then talks. But Trump became the arbiter in this matter: he called on Zelensky to agree to talks, while completely omitting the ceasefire. Europe and Kiev thus received another cold shower from Washington. It is probably no coincidence that Trump already mentioned last week that he wanted to involve Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the peace talks.

What could happen next? Zelensky is already ready to arrive in Istanbul in person for the talks after Trump's "instruction", a ceasefire is no longer a condition. He wants to "wait" for Putin, but for that he would have to lift the ban on talks with him, which has been in effect since 2022. Putin's arrival would, however, be more of a surprise.

Potential negotiations at any level between Ukraine and Russia will undoubtedly be very difficult. The chances of them leading to any result depend on whether Ukraine, Russia and the US agree to end the war on the front line and at the same time discuss the main parameters of its termination among themselves. In addition to agreeing to a ceasefire, will there also be an American peace plan on the table, which includes a de facto recognition of Russia's occupation of the conquered territories, recognition that Crimea is Russian territory and the lifting of sanctions? For Ukraine, this is unacceptable, apart from a ceasefire. It is not clear whether any compromise can be found.

At the same time, the negotiating parties may be encouraged to reach an agreement by developments in the world: the conflict between India and Pakistan has been eased and the US and China have concluded a ceasefire in the trade war. At the same time, the White House must take into account the strengthening of the Russia-China axis, which was demonstrated by the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the celebrations of the end of the war in Moscow.

The main peacemaker now is in any case Trump, who is heading to the Middle East this week. Couldn't he eventually jump back to Istanbul to confirm this role?

The next few days may show whether the resolution of the war is really within reach.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily