Lightning Summit in Trump's Shadow

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has made no small effort to adapt the alliance summit in The Hague to the special style of governance of US President Donald Trump. All US allies have already seen this. This includes the occasional relativization of alliance commitments and unpredictable customs policy.

The program in The Hague did not include long meetings. The closed meeting of the North Atlantic Council was a "lightning summit". It took only two hours to keep the attention of the head of the White House.

But Trump arrived in The Hague as a major geopolitical player who played a major role in stopping the conflict between Israel and Iran, for which Rutte praised him admiringly before the summit. At the same time, the president was able to hear with satisfaction that the alliance members are, according to his wishes, ready to invest five percent of GDP in their defense.

Despite the lofty words that this is a historic moment for the alliance at a time when it is facing unprecedented threats, mainly from Russia, it is only a political declaration. Many governments do not have a clear idea of where they will get the money for increased spending, and where they will have to cut budgets to reach the required percentages.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez spoke out the most strongly: he does not want to reduce social spending because of this. Not only Spain will have to choose what will become a priority – whether armaments, a green Europe or social peace. The road to 2035, when five percent is to become a reality, is complicated. It may also involve changes in the political preferences of Europeans in favor of forces skeptical of excessive armaments, NATO and perhaps even the European Union.

The summit confirmed that Vladimir Putin's Russia is a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security, but there is uncertainty about what Trump's relationship with it actually is. A week ago, at the G7 summit, he called for Russia to be readmitted to the "club."
A very brief communiqué declares the will to continue supporting Ukraine, but does not mention the possibility of its future membership in NATO, which can be seen as a concession to the Americans.

After the summit, the moment of truth will come: in the fall, the US is to inform its allies about the results of its global security review.

It is clear that the US military presence in Europe will be reduced, and the question of what military capabilities the countries of the old continent will have to replace in order for European defense to be functional will be on the table. The list is not small – from air defense, through intelligence tools to strategic transport.

There will be no time left to ponder NATO's greater expansion into the Indo-Pacific.
Europe must be aware that Trump's America First strategy may mean that the future of the North Atlantic Alliance and the US role in it remains uncertain.
It is not only Rutte who faces difficult times.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily