Munich: A world without order is a challenge for Europe

          This year's Munich Security Conference was eagerly awaited. No wonder after a year of drama in American-European relations. At the last conference, US Vice President J.D. Vance kicked them off with a speech in which he criticized European politicians for suppressing democracy and inability to counter migration, which is disintegrating Europe and is a greater danger than Russia or China.

Then Europe experienced shock therapy. President Donald Trump imposed a 15 percent tariff on European production imported into the United States, he wanted to annex Greenland, almost bringing NATO into an existential crisis. In relation to the war in Ukraine and Russia, he is actually leading a solo party.

A traditional security report issued before the conference called the US president the initiator of the demolition of the existing world order, which could lead to a world without rules dominated by great power interests.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz went even further in his opening speech: the old international order no longer exists, and the world has crossed the threshold of a new era, which is shaped by the power and politics of the three great powers: the US, Russia and China, while the American claim to world leadership is in any case disputed and may have already been lost. These are strong words from a long-time Atlanticist.

If he had been in Munich Vance, he would probably have received an emotional reaction. However, the White House sent the more diplomatic Secretary of State Marco Rubio here this year, probably as part of the game of "bad and good cop". In his speech, he said that the US does not want to leave Europe, on the contrary, it wants to revive an old friendship. But in the same breath, he added that the US intends to build a new world order, even on its own if necessary, although it hopes that Europe will join it.

Will European leaders want to do this when they have also heard criticism of the "climate cult policy" and unmanaged migration? The fate of Greenland is also unresolved: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in Munich that Trump has not given up his desire to own it.

The demand for a more independent European defence is also an evergreen. Some countries do not want to break away from the US, and some are only cautiously moving towards greater autonomy. Can the German-French negotiations on a European nuclear deterrent announced at the Merz conference bring a breakthrough?

The topic of Ukraine could not be missing either. President Volodymyr Zelensky was assured of the continued support of Europeans, which he also appreciated. At the same time, however, he admitted directly at the conference that the US is pushing the Ukrainians to make unilateral territorial concessions to Russia in order to reach a peace agreement.

The "realpolitik" conclusion in the security report of the conference that "Ukraine is one of the first victims of a new type of world order in which global and regional hegemons set the rules in their spheres of influence" will not be far from the truth. 

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily