The attack on Iran does not yet have a clear message

Eight months later, the United States and Israel decided to attack Iran again, which was to be expected after the largest concentration of U.S. military power around the Middle East in recent weeks, the largest since the U.S. intervention in Iraq in 2003.

Washington and Tel Aviv assessed that a "window of opportunity" had opened for an attack because the Iranian regime is "broken" by a severe economic crisis and anti-regime protests at the turn of the year, which were brutally suppressed by state power.

The three rounds of indirect diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran, mediated by Oman to get Tehran to give up its nuclear program and produce ballistic missiles, were more of a smokescreen for the preparation of an attack with the main goal of overthrowing Iran's theocratic regime. U.S. President Donald Trump also directly called on Iranians to do so in a speech announcing the attack.

The elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the head of the country's defense council, is also expected to contribute to this. It is reminiscent of the Venezuelan scenario – depriving the country of its leader and forcing its leadership to submit to the American will. The only difference is that Venezuelan President Maduro was kidnapped and Khamenei was killed.

Will it work like this in Iran? The regime's priority now is its survival at all costs, which is also related to retaliatory attacks on American bases, American allies in the Persian Gulf and Israel.

According to US intelligence services, it is very likely that the dictatorship of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will be established. Lightweight, at the same time

Nor should we ignore the warnings of experts that rival factions and civil war may break out in the country, which may lead to large waves of refugees destabilizing the region.

But now Trump wants to neutralize the long-time American adversary, to implement what no American president has managed to do since 1979. It is betting on intense bombing to force the Iranian leadership to surrender. Can this be achieved without a ground operation, which is out of the question?

But the US president's strategy may have a "geopolitical motive" among others. At the end of the month, Trump will head to China for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the attack on Iran is a clear message that the US still has great military power, which it does not hesitate to use to advance its interests against China's strategic allies.

In any case, Trump played a big game with big stakes. A quick victory can strengthen his position on domestic and international soil. On the contrary, the opposite will mean a considerable complication for him.

Only one thing is certain: what is happening around Iran puts a definitive stamp on a world without rules, where only the right of the stronger applies. 

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily