The Canadian Rebellion and New Alliances

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly questioned Canada's sovereignty after his inauguration last year . According to Trump, Canada should become the 51st US state in its own interest. He vividly described what the people there could get in return: "Much lower taxes and much better military protection for the people of Canada. And no tariffs."

The Canadians let him know that they didn't want it and the situation calmed down a bit. However, the tension returns. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney dared to do an unprecedented thing: to criticize Trump's policies in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, even though he did not directly name him. But it was clear to everyone who he was talking about. He took a look at the damage caused by the American president's policies rules-based international order, international law, and institutions such as the UN and the World Trade Organization. He also condemned his pressure on Europe.

And he also committed another "sin". He visited China to reset mutual relations and conclude a strategic partnership with China. A year ago, he called it the biggest security threat to Canada.

What is the reason for such a radical turn? According to Carney, China is a more predictable partner than the current United States. More intensive trade with China has been given the green light – Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric cars will be eased, and the Middle Kingdom will reduce tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, which will be appreciated by Canadian farmers.

It should be added that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will soon head to Beijing, followed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Trump's pressure on Europe may also bring an effort for greater political and economic emancipation to the US, which is the opposite of what Trump wanted to achieve.

The reaction of the head of the White House to the Canadian rebellion was angry. If a trade agreement is concluded between Ottawa and Beijing, he wants to impose tariffs of 100 percent on Canada, because he does not intend to allow Carney to turn it into a transshipment point for Chinese goods and products that will go to the United States.

But Carney is clearly determined to confront Trump. In his speech in Davos, he emphasized what Canada stands for. It is an energy superpower, with vast reserves of critical minerals, the world's most educated population, pension funds among the world's largest investors, and a government with enormous fiscal capacity ready to act decisively.

Although 75 percent of Canada's exports go to the United States, the United States cannot do without oil, steel, aluminum, timber, a number of minerals and other commodities from the country of the maple leaf. Carney also urged his fellow citizens to prioritize Canadian goods when making purchases in response to a "threat from abroad."

The president of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, noted that Canada's position could become a member of the EU. This is certainly an exaggeration. But can't dramatic changes in transatlantic relations bring new variants of the alliance over time? Their time may be coming now.

Miloš Balabán, MF Dnes