The End of the Vicious Circle of Violence in Gaza is in Sight

After nineteen months of the war in Gaza, which was triggered by the brutal terrorist attack by the Palestinian Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, there is no end in sight. Hopes that the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will result in some kind of peaceful solution have faded. The new Israeli offensive aims to "take control of Gaza". The Israelis are supposed to accept its occupation.

But the operation, combined with the blockade of humanitarian aid, is putting two million people at risk of famine, and the death toll is already unbearable. The British weekly The Economist, based on an analysis of data from the Gaza Ministry of Health, an online survey and obituaries on social media, concluded that 77-109 thousand people died in Gaza during the war operations, up to five percent of the pre-war population. Although the death toll may be disproportionately high among young Hamas fighters, a large number of women and children are among the dead. Renewing the war could also be a death sentence for the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

Israel's strategy in Gaza is also drawing opposition from Israeli society. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said that what Israel is currently doing in Gaza is very close to a war crime.

Britain, France and Canada, Israel's key allies, have reacted sharply. Israel's actions have been described as intolerable, and the threat of sanctions is on the table. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has warned that the European Union could reconsider its association agreement with Israel, including free trade zones. But there seems to be more emphasis on the humanitarian aspect of the ongoing tragedy than on a political solution to the conflict, which is more intractable. The reaction of the three countries may also be dictated by concerns about the negative reaction of their strong Muslim minorities to the events in Gaza.

And what is the position of the United States? President Donald Trump barely mentioned Gaza during his recent trip to the Middle East, but he nevertheless sent two signals to Israel: he skipped Tel Aviv on the way and his vice president J.D. Vance canceled a planned visit to the country. For Trump, Netanyahu's policy is a complication, as it could disrupt the big business deals agreed with his Arab partners in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar. But Netanyahu seems to be playing the bait. He admitted that in order to maintain American support, he only minimally retreated from his hardline policy on Gaza by deciding to partially lift the blockade. Will this be enough for the White House?

The murder of two young Israeli diplomats in Washington on Wednesday by a pro-Palestinian activist who "did it for Gaza" will not help the Palestinians. It only fuels a vicious cycle of violence with no end in sight. At the same time, the conflict is spiraling out of control, which Europe can look on with concern.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily