The Middle East ceasefire remains fragile
The second half of June brought another sharp Middle East clash. Israel carried out an attack on Iran with the aim of torpedoing its nuclear program and also eliminating part of the army's top leadership.
This allowed it to weaken Iran's allies - Hamas and Hezbollah. It did not have to fear their retaliation. The United States joined Israel in attacking three key facilities of the Iranian nuclear program in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
US President Donald Trump declared that they had been completely "destroyed". However, the US Defense Department's intelligence service stated in a preliminary assessment of the damage caused by the attack that the basic components of the Iranian nuclear program had not been destroyed. The attack only slowed down the entire program by a few months, but did not stop it.
Even a high-ranking Israeli military official told the respected Middle East portal Al-Monitor that the US attacks did not bring about a permanent end to it.
At the same time, many experts point out that their real impact has yet to be proven and will take some time. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi admitted that the damage to Iran's nuclear facilities caused by the 12-day war with Israel is "serious".
The third phase of the conflict, in the form of expected Iranian attacks on US bases in the Middle East, the energy infrastructure of Arab neighbors or shipping in the Persian Gulf, did not occur. It was preceded by a previously announced missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. The Iranian leadership is aware of its weakening and will now focus more on the survival of the regime. However, it will be difficult to give up its nuclear program.
Three questions now loom over the Middle East: Will the ceasefire between Israel and Iran be maintained? Will negotiations on an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program be resumed? Will the Middle East become more stable?
Regarding the ceasefire, it can be stated that the worst phases of the clashes are over and the situation has calmed down. However, it is more likely that it is just a suspension of hostilities between Israel and Iran. It is difficult to talk about some kind of "new beginning" that Trump mentions.
Regarding the nuclear agreement, it is necessary to recall that negotiations between the US and Iran on it were underway even before the attacks. They are now on ice. Whether they will be able to be resumed is unclear.
The fate of regional stability is also uncertain. This is also influenced by serious considerations in the US and Israel about the possibility of achieving regime change in Iran.
It is a risky strategy. Nahida Siamdoust, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Texas, said that many Iranians do dream of regime change, but they also see the "horrific spectacle" of similar efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. War is not the answer for them.
Its shadow still hangs over the Middle East, and the ceasefire remains very fragile.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily