The tug-of-war in the strait continues, while Iran and the US are pressed for time
After seven weeks of war in Iran, we are watching the continuation of the drama in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced on Friday that it was open to commercial shipping after Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon under U.S. pressure. U.S. President Donald Trump thanked for this on his Truth Social network, noting that the U.S. Navy will continue to blockade Iranian ships and ports unless a longer-term peace agreement is reached.
But the blockade is unacceptable to Iran, and its Revolutionary Guards closed the strait again on Saturday. Nevertheless, they allow some ships to sail through the Guards after permission (probably even with the payment of a "toll" of two million dollars). Ships that tried to pass through the strait without permission came under fire from the gunboats of the Guards.
However, the re-closure of the strait does not have to mean the end of negotiations to end the war. Trump is showing optimism. He claims that there will be an agreement and announced on Saturday that "very good talks" continued.
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also spoke about the progress in them. However, according to him, both countries are far from reaching an agreement. Yet there are "only" one or two issues on which both sides have disagreed – without specifying what they are about. Iran's nuclear program remains a stumbling block. Iran's deputy foreign minister said Tehran would not hand over its enriched uranium to the US.
It is not clear whether the second round of negotiations scheduled to take place today and tomorrow in Islamabad, Pakistan, can bring any breakthrough. At the same time, strong words fly through the ether. Trump threatens to resume bombing if a deal cannot be reached by the end of the ceasefire on Tuesday.
Iran's "invisible" Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei counters by stating that "the Iranian Navy is ready to inflict another bitter defeat on its enemies."
However, both Washington and Tehran may not be entirely comfortable with the escalation of the war. The war is driving up inflation in the U.S. as gasoline prices have risen by 21 percent. This is not good news for Trump ahead of the November congressional elections.
Iran has oil exports blocked, which deprives it of funds to wage war. It cannot import grain through the Gulf, it is threatened by a food crisis. It is therefore a tug-of-war for "endurance", even though Tehran is probably pulling the short end of the rope.
Some leaders of the Arab monarchies of the Gulf have said that negotiations on a peace agreement will require at least six months. It will not be possible without an extension of the ceasefire.
It remains unknown whether the strait will be opened, which the global economy is desperately waiting for. At the same time, with each subsequent day that the strait is closed, the complex restoration of normal operation is delayed, which can take months. After all, 128 tankers with 160 million barrels of oil are already trapped in it.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily