The United States and Israel are winning individual battles, but Iran may be winning the war

U.S. President Donald Trump, in his televised address to Americans on Thursday night, said that the war in Iran will continue for another two or three weeks and that the U.S. will attack very hard and will meet all its goals. According to Trump, Iran no longer poses a threat, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, and its unblocking should be taken care of by allies.

But is the end of the conflict really in sight? After five weeks, it turns out that even the overwhelming military superiority of the United States over Iran is not enough to defeat a theocratic regime. Even though the US has the world's strongest economy, the strongest army and the strongest intelligence services, which is complemented by an experienced and well-armed Israeli army.

The U.S. military says it has hit more than 11,000 targets in Iran. This significantly weakened its conventional military capabilities. Intense bombing devastated industrial and civilian infrastructure, and even the top of the Iranian regime was eliminated.

But his answer was asymmetric warfare. Ballistic missiles and cheap drones are attacking Israel and American allies and American military bases in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, holding the global economy hostage.

For US President Donald Trump, the "political costs" of waging the war are rising with each passing day. Both to the American public, which does not support the war, and to the European allies in the North Atlantic Alliance, who, along with Turkey, are also keeping their hands off it.

Trump shows a twofold face to Iran: on the one hand, the possibility of diplomatic negotiations mediated by Pakistan and, on the other, the threat of further military pressure.

But can Tehran accept a 15-point "peace plan" containing unacceptable demands, such as limiting its missile capabilities, giving up its nuclear program, or unconditionally liberating the Strait of Hormuz? Moreover, in a situation where the head of the White House threatens to occupy the island of Khark, where 90 percent of Iran's oil exports pass, with American ground forces heading to the Gulf, as well as by bombing power plants and desalination plants? And how will Trump's threat in Thursday's speech to send them to the Stone Age, where they belong, affect Iranians?

However, any military escalation, including ground operations, could also bring greater losses to the Americans, with negative effects on American public opinion and also the blockage of any negotiations to end the conflict. It would deepen the global economic crisis and further economic devastation of the wealthy monarchies of the Persian Gulf.

The opposite is a diplomatic solution to the conflict, including a ceasefire. Although negotiations on opening the Strait of Hormuz or on Tehran giving up its nuclear program will be extremely difficult. And the agreement would probably be worse for the US than before the war. For Trump, this is probably hard to imagine now, and therefore it really cannot be ruled out that there will be a war escalation, no matter what the cost.

But perhaps Trump could occasionally read the prestigious Foreign Affairs magazine. On March 26, Associate Professor Narges Bajoghli from Johns Hopkins University published a remarkable analysis "Iran's Long Game". And its conclusion is a warning for the White House:

"The US and Israel, thanks to their overwhelming firepower, may be winning individual battles. Iran, which has been preparing for this situation for 35 years and whose strategy is focused on endurance rather than superiority, may be winning the war."

Miloš Balabán, Pávo Daily