The world is changing, the most since the end of the Cold War
Is the conflict in Iran coming to an end? Three months after its start, there is hope that this can happen. The Americans and the Iranians announced that they were negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding regarding a peace agreement with Iran. However, it will express the acceptance of compromises from both sides, and this may not be easy - they mainly concern the Iranian nuclear program and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
But even if there is a "peaceful breakthrough", the world after the conflict will not be the same as before it. First of all, it brought serious geopolitical upheavals with long-term effects. American historian Robert Kagan was merciless in The Atlantic: the US has failed in the conflict, which will weaken its global role against China and Russia.
It is no longer true that the security of free navigation on the seas can only be guaranteed by the United States. Even the first power is powerless against Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has used it as its "nuclear weapon".
It has been definitively confirmed that those who want to exist normally in today's world must reduce their dependence on supply chains. The shortage of oil, gas, helium and fertilizer supplies due to the Gulf War is forcing a rapid search for alternative trade routes.
"Logistical sovereignty" is becoming the dictate of the times. There are more bottlenecks in the global economy: for example, the Strait of Malacca between Indonesia and Malaysia or the Bab al-Mandeb Strait between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, where operations have been threatened by the Yemeni Houthis for three years now.
The monarchies of the Persian Gulf have learned a hard lesson. The military presence of the Americans did not protect them from war, their model of development, which counted on them developing as a global financial and tourist "hub", received a heavy blow from the war. In addition, the rivalry between the strongest players in the region - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - has increased.
They have left OPEC and are focused on cooperation with Israel with the aim of weakening Iran, as evidenced by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's secret visit to the Emirates during the conflict. The Saudis, on the other hand, want to conclude a non-aggression agreement with Iran.
The war in Iran is also weakening NATO. The refusal of the Europeans to side with the Americans has provoked Trump's displeasure. He declared that he was a "paper tiger" and that the US was not going to continue to engage in the collective defense of Europe. It has to think more about its defense without Washington's support.
The weakening of NATO suits Russia and gives it a reason to continue the war in Ukraine, which is also experiencing a deficit in arms supplies due to Iran. Moreover, Trump sees Russia as a potential partner rather than an adversary. After all, the Americans have partially unblocked sanctions on the sale of Russian oil in their interest. In spite of the Europeans.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hit Japan and South Korea, America's main allies in Asia, hard. Moreover, they cannot be sure of America's security obligations. China is watching this closely because of Taiwan. At the same time, the oil shock strengthens its influence as the largest global producer of "green technologies", including electric cars.
We are simply witnessing the biggest geopolitical shifts since the end of the Cold War...
Miloš Balabán, MF DNES