Trump has toughened up, but only halfway
On Monday, US President Donald Trump was supposed to announce a toughening of US policy towards Russia for its unwillingness to continue the peace process in Ukraine and the intensification of attacks against it. Trump is said to have understood that Russian President Vladimir Putin is deceiving him and that negotiations with the Russians can only be carried out from a position of strength.
However, the toughening is not taking place. Trump announced a 100% tariff against Russia and its trading partners with a 50-day delay so that an agreement can be concluded to end the war between Moscow and Kiev. However, this is a much milder step than what has been discussed in recent days: the confiscation of frozen Russian assets in the West or the introduction of a 500% tariff on countries that purchase Russian raw materials and other goods. This was proposed some time ago by Senator Lindsey Graham - however, experts warned that this would effectively torpedo international trade, since it mainly concerns China and India.
Trump has given the green light to the delivery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, but there are uncertainties surrounding this. Formally, they will be delivered to Europe, which will pay for them. There are supposed to be seventeen of them, but according to Trump, not all of them will be used on the battlefield. It is not clear how many will be delivered to Kiev. Three are to be delivered by Germany and the Netherlands. According to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the German system will not arrive in Ukraine for several months.
According to The Washington Post, Trump considered delivering long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which can hit both Moscow and St. Petersburg. The tactic of "escalation to de-escalation" would, however, be a very risky move with unpredictable consequences for the US and Europe as well.
The key question now is where the war will end up in fifty days. Military experts warn that the poor condition of the Ukrainian army could cause the front to collapse and accelerate the Russian advance. Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuhla even declared that "Trump has given Putin another fifty days to seize Ukraine."
It is also necessary to take into account the negative trends in Ukrainian and transatlantic politics. The Economist weekly concluded that political purges and internal divisions could be much worse for the country than anything the Russians can achieve by force. The resignation of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, who will be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, is evidence of a tough power struggle in Kiev. This is seen as strengthening the power of the gray eminence of Ukrainian politics, the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who is not happy about even the White House.
And Ukraine's European rear? It now has to deal mainly with Trump's 30 percent tariff on European production exported to the US with the threat of a customs war. This may weaken the will of Europeans to support Ukraine and buy American weapons for it. The Kremlin has reason to be satisfied with the announcement of Trump's steps.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily