Trump seeks escape from conflict in Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday decided to conditionally postpone all attacks on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. He announced this on the Truth Social social network, saying that the US has had very good and constructive negotiations with Iran over the past two days to completely end the war in the Middle East.
Iranian media denied the announcement of the talks, mocking the comment that the head of the White House had relented again.
In the fog of propaganda used by both warring parties, it is difficult to get to the truth. Nevertheless, one can think about what the Americans and Iranians can gain in possible negotiations to end the conflict and what their motivation may be.
Trump may have wanted to calm stock markets again and bring down the rising price of oil, which reached as high as $120 per barrel last week. The head of Iran's parliament, Muhammad Bagher Gahalibaf, said that "fake news is being used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape from the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped."
It should be added, however, that while it is in the interest of the US to announce diplomatic negotiations in order to calm the markets, it is in Iran's interest to downplay any negotiations and do the opposite in order to give the Trump administration no leeway. Tehran's resistance brings great economic damage to the US and its allies. They are a tool to force the White House to make concessions.
Trump may realize that he underestimated the ability of Iranian resistance. It cannot be ruled out that he is looking for some kind of escape strategy from the conflict, which has no support even on home soil. After all, he had already been willing to make deals in several cases in order to get out of difficult situations. A temporary sanctions exemption on the sale of Iranian oil in an effort to calm oil markets can be seen as a helpful signal.
On the other hand, Iran is located between millstones. It was attacked twice during the year, which reduces the motivation to negotiate to end the war without any security guarantees. The Iranian leadership may be aware of the large scale of the losses. About two thousand people have been killed, military and civilian infrastructure is severely damaged, and therefore diplomatic negotiations may be considered in the interest of the regime's survival.
Tehran is now supposed to receive a 15-point peace plan from Washington, which is supposed to include the lifting of sanctions in exchange for ending Iran's nuclear program. However, an Iranian military spokesman said that the US is "negotiating with itself" and that Iran will never come to an agreement with them.
The situation is also complicated by the call of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who called on the United States to continue the war against Iran, as it is in Saudi Arabia's interest to significantly weaken its regional rival. This puts them in the same boat as Israel.
The light at the end of the tunnel is not visible yet.
Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily