Trump takes risks in the Middle East

The Middle East drama is entering its next act. US President Donald Trump has given the green light to an American air strike on key Iranian nuclear facilities. Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. According to Trump, they were to be completely destroyed. The Iranians confirmed the attacks, but whether the damage was of such a magnitude that it would completely paralyze the Iranian nuclear program is not entirely clear.

Iran said that the underground Fordow complex was only slightly damaged.

The fourteen-day deadline given by Trump for Tehran to abandon its nuclear program was not taken seriously. His tactic of "giving it up unconditionally" did not give much chance for diplomacy anyway.

Similar to the Iranians' opposition to such pressure. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was ready for a deal aimed at ensuring it does not seek nuclear weapons, but would not accept any deal that stripped it of its "nuclear rights," including the right to enrich uranium, even at low levels, for civilian use. Tehran also signaled that it would not resume talks if Israel attacked it.
On Friday, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Britain, as well as the European Union's foreign policy chief, Kallas, met with Araqchi in Geneva. They told him that Europe wanted to continue negotiating Iran's nuclear program and urged Tehran to continue talks with the United States. In response to the talks, Trump effectively told Europe to stay out of it.

Trump's decision to attack could have been motivated by the way Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had acted in the Iranian case. He launched the Iranian operation somewhat in defiance of the Americans, presenting them with a fait accompli. They were forced to react to events rather than shape or influence them. By deciding to attack, Trump can signal that he is now taking the strategic initiative.

Is he wrong? Doesn't Netanyahu now have him exactly where he wanted him – with the Americans directly involved in another potential Middle East war?

And even though Trump indicated that the attack was a one-off and successful action, it cannot be ruled out that it will trigger a military escalation. The key question for the coming hours and days will be how Iran will respond to the attack.

Extreme scenarios include further attacks on Israel, American military bases in the Middle East, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Some experts warn that if Iran's nuclear facilities are not fatally disrupted, Iran may accelerate the production of nuclear weapons. And it is hardly expected that the American strikes will force the Iranians to make major concessions at the negotiating table.

Trump boasted that he didn't start any new wars during his first presidency, and criticized his predecessors for dragging the US into foreign conflicts. He's doing the same now. Where the current conflict goes next is no longer entirely in his control.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily