Trump's Difficult Global Simultaneous

The ceasefire in Gaza has reinforced Donald Trump's image as a politician capable of achieving a breakthrough in a seemingly intractable conflict. However, it will only take a few months to see whether he has managed to achieve lasting peace, although he himself considers the war to be over.

The situation is still very fragile: Hamas has not yet been disarmed, and Israel can return its troops to Gaza as quickly as it withdrew them from there. However, the euphoria in Israel and Gaza from the end of the war is evident, the return of Israeli hostages from Hamas captivity was very emotional.

At the same time, Trump announced in the Israeli Knesset that he wants to focus on ending the war in Ukraine after Gaza. He praised the role of Steve Witkoff, whom he described as a "great negotiator" with the Kremlin, without whom "the world could expect World War III." During talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, he reportedly discussed "many interesting things".

Nevertheless, Trump is quick to alternate between being friendly to Russia, which he showed mainly by the summit in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the position of a hawk. Now he is suspensing the Ukrainians whether to give the green light to the supply of American Tomahawk long-range missiles to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may learn the verdict from Trump on Friday in Washington.

But it is already announcing a number of intermediate steps. First, he wants to talk to Putin with tomahawks in hand and demand that he stop the war in Ukraine. At the same time, he does not want the missile deliveries to mean a new escalation of the war. He then sent a message to Kyiv that Washington would not be able to significantly increase its arms supply because the US itself has a shortage of them.

This is confirmed by US military expert Mark Cansian, who said that out of the two hundred tomahawks purchased in 2022, the Americans have already used 120 of them, so the Ukrainians can only get a few pieces, which will hardly affect the situation on the battlefield.

And then comes the news that the restriction of exports of rare earth metals from China to the US, which led to the imposition of 100 percent US tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1, could complicate the production of tomahawks and F-35 fighters.

Contradictory signals are now coming out of Washington. Trump announced that the US may stop trade with China in a number of sectors. The US stock market immediately reacted with a drop of $450 billion. But before that, Commerce Secretary Scott Bessent spoke of communications with the Chinese that "substantially reduced tensions" and the president is expected to hold a "constructive" meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea.

The Financial Times' columnist Edward Luce wrote that "China's ability to damage the U.S. economy is currently stronger than the other way around," adding that Trump would eventually back down.

Trump is thus playing a difficult global simultaneous game with a number of actors in a situation where the US no longer plays the very first fiddle in the world. 

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily