Trump's game with the world will continue next year

Last week, the traditional November forecast of the British weekly The Economist on the key trends of global development in the coming year was published. It followed a forecast from last year, which predicted that US President Donald Trump would be the most affected by 2025.

The "Trump tornado" has fundamentally affected global politics, security and the economy. Suffice it to recall the unpredictable tariff deal with the whole world, the effort to annex Canada and Greenland to the US, or the pressure to increase European arms spending.

With an unconventional policy, Trump achieved an end to the war in Gaza. He did not succeed in Ukraine. It has lost financial support from Washington, which has sent a message to Europe that it is its business. The contradictory policy towards Russia continues, the symbol of which is the Alaskan summit between Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Will there be another one in Budapest? The end of the war is not yet in sight.

Next year, the United States will celebrate 250 years since its founding. Trump will certainly want to use this to interpret their past, present and future. A strong controversy can be expected in a polarized society. And in November's "midterm elections" to Congress, voters will give a verdict on two years of Trump's rule.

And what will happen to the world? Are we in a new Cold War between the US-led blocs and China, or will Trump's agreements divide the planet into three spheres of influence where Washington, Beijing and Moscow will be able to act as they see fit?

Developments around the war in Ukraine or Trump's visit to China in April will indicate something. Trump prefers a pragmatic approach dictated by inner feelings, not geopolitical laws of a higher order. Reaching a "deal" is at the heart of his policy. This contributes to the further erosion of the existing world order

Paradoxically, the America First course opens up space for strengthening China. Beijing can present itself as a more reliable partner vis-à-vis the countries of the Global South, while at the same time willingly agreeing to tactical trade agreements with Washington, which is better than confrontation. In addition, it has a global monopoly on the supply of rare earth metals.

Europe is worse off. He wants to increase defense spending, support the US, try to keep Ukraine, accelerate economic growth and cope with a huge deficit. At the same time, he wishes to remain a supporter of free trade and "green" policies. It is difficult to do it all at once, which will cause a severe headache for European leaders in 2026.

Next year, the dynamic development of artificial intelligence, where the US and China compete for leadership, will continue to influence the course of the world. However, The Economist warns that the sharp growth in investment in AI may lead to the bursting of the "investment bubble", which was confirmed by the head of Google, Sundar Pichai. The economic consequences can be severe, even if it does not stop its development.

In 2026, there will be no shortage of dramatic events and twists and turns.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily