Trump's quick peace may not work out

At the end of February, US President Donald Trump scolded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House on live television that he was not ready for peace with Russia and that he had "no cards in his hands" in a war with Russia. This was followed by phases of reconciliation, phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin, disillusionment with him, threats of "crushing sanctions" against Russia.

Finally, Trump gave Putin a friendly welcome to talks in Alaska. Europe and Ukraine were shocked. Perhaps because sanctions have stopped being talked about.

On Monday, another diplomatic play took place at the White House to demonstrate the unity of the United States and Europe in their approach to resolving the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, leaders of key European countries, the European Union and NATO met with Trump.

Zelensky and the Europeans did not like the Alaskan meeting with Putin, but there was no criticism of Trump. On the contrary, everyone praised him for moving the negotiations forward. However, there are still contradictions about what the next steps should look like.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron want to achieve a ceasefire first, not a peace deal that Trump is demanding.

Will he change his mind? It is not certain when, right after Alaska, according to The New York Times, he told European leaders that peace could be achieved quickly if Zelensky agreed to hand over the rest of Donbass to Russia.

In Kiev, they must take seriously Trump's words that he considers Russia to be a powerful power and that Zelensky should take into account what he loses with it in the conflict.

However, on territorial issues, Zelensky's negotiations with Putin, which Trump agreed in a phone call with the Russian leader on Monday, may still fail. If territorial issues are not discussed in advance, Putin is unlikely to agree to the meeting. But Zelensky's statement already indicates a more flexible position than a complete rejection of territorial changes - he said that he was ready for a "proportional exchange" of territory.
So far, the security guarantees for Ukraine are very hazy. A kind of bypass in the form of the validity of Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty on mutual assistance, which applies to Ukraine even without NATO membership, is very vague. The decisive factor will be the attitude of the Americans, who have set up a working group together with NATO to prepare the guarantees.

Europeans should also not miss the fact that Trump is also playing a larger geopolitical game. In an interview with Fox News after meeting with Putin, he said that it is possible to achieve a lot of great things with Russia because of its incredible natural wealth. The fact that there were economic ministers from both sides in Anchorage suggests something.

For example, that the politics of "spheres of influence" is certainly not alien to Trump and that Ukraine may be just an episode in their pegging. Europe should take this into account as well.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily