Ukraine is at a critical moment in the war

After the "Iranian pause", there was a resumption of American diplomatic activity towards a possible end to the war in Ukraine. In Moscow, CIA chief John Ratcliffe held talks with the heads of Russian secret services. This was followed by the unexpected participation of Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the G20 meeting of finance ministers in the US. And over the weekend, US President Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks first in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and then in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Kremlin said the talks were "constructive and beneficial," adding that Putin and Trump would maintain personal contact. Zelensky reiterated the thesis that trilateral negotiations with the participation of Ukraine, Russia and the US should resume and that territorial disputes can only be resolved through negotiations between him and Putin. But at the same time, he added that the war will drag on at least until this winter.

This is a realistic estimate. The lack of missiles for the Patriot air defense system makes Ukraine extremely vulnerable to Russian ballistic missile attacks. There is a risk of further devastation of Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Zelensky is unlikely to succeed in obtaining 300 missiles for air defense from allies before the coming winter. After all, the Americans have only a thousand of them left due to the war in Iran.

Although Ukraine will continue to attack Russian oil refineries, factories and warehouses with drones - the number of attacks is to increase from three hundred to a thousand per day according to Zelensky's orders - it will probably not be enough to fatally weaken Russia.

At the same time, Kyiv has budgetary problems. The Ukrainian government is now urgently seeking to obtain an additional €23 billion from the European Union to fill the gap in the military budget. However, this may also encounter resistance within the Union in view of internal political tensions in France and Germany, where political support for the growing opposition forces – the French National Rally and the Alternative for Germany – is growing. Both sides reject further military support for Ukraine.

And Trump is coming up with a shocking demand that Europe additionally pay for President Joe Biden's "free" military aid to Europe and Ukraine, which is approximately $120 billion.

The situation on the Ukrainian political scene is also complicated. An analysis by the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia has brought information that the head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, leads a faction that promotes a settlement of the conflict so that there is no risk of even greater losses.

But it is opposed by those who refuse any concessions to Russia, as it will undermine the morale of the military and demoralize society. But it is already shaken by endless corruption scandals at the highest levels of politics.

Thus, Ukraine's vulnerability is now perhaps the highest since the beginning of the war. And we can only speculate whether renewed diplomatic negotiations can help Kyiv. 

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily