Ukraine pays for Europe's disagreement with Donald Trump

The escalation of the crisis in transatlantic relations over Greenland has been averted, and uncertainty about the further development of relations between Europe and the United States under the leadership of Donald Trump remains. Trust is broken, and more crises may follow. Some European leaders have said that NATO will pass through them every six months as long as Trump is president.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney poured clean wine for the West. According to him, the events around Greenland show "a rupture in the world order, the end of pleasant fiction and the beginning of a harsh reality where geopolitics... It is not subject to any limits, no restrictions... It seems that every day we are reminded that we live in a time of great power competition, that the rules-based order is weakening, that the strong can do whatever they want, and the weak must put up with it."

This also affects Ukraine. In Trump's great power game, he finds himself outside of America's main interest, and Europe, its key supporter, must mainly deal with how to deal with the fact that it is already more of an adversary than an ally for Washington. After all, the fate of NATO hung in the balance because of Greenland. At the same time, Ukraine has been striving for membership in it for a long time. In addition, frustrated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Europe in Davos for not providing enough help to Kyiv.

It may already be hitting the ceiling of its capabilities and is not able to fully compensate for the shortfall in American aid. Kyiv claims that it needs over 100 billion euros a year to keep the state and army running. However, at the end of last year, the European Council approved a loan of €90 billion for the next two years, i.e. €45 billion per year.

At the same time, Ukraine is facing an "energy Armageddon". Due to Russian attacks, it has lost up to two-thirds of its energy production capacity, and electricity runs for a maximum of three to four hours a day. 600,000 people have already fled Kyiv, and according to its mayor, Vitali Klitschko, there is a threat of a humanitarian catastrophe and another migration crisis to Europe. There are voices that the country needs an energy truce.

But this will not be achieved without a peace agreement, which was discussed by representatives of the US, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday. It should be added that without Europe.

The negotiations, although supposedly constructive, did not reach any final agreement. The most controversial point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine withdraw from twenty percent of the Donbass, which the Russians have not conquered, which Trump is also said to be inclined to. Perhaps the positive thing is that the negotiations are to continue on February 1.

At the same time, it is evident that the intensification of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure is aimed at breaking Ukraine's resistance at the final stage of negotiations. But neither the US nor Europe will go into a sharper conflict with Russia because of this.

But Ukraine is mainly suffering from the crisis in European-American relations, and the outcome of the war may not be favorable for Ukraine because of it. 

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily