Warsaw's change is not good news for Kiev

US President Donald Trump's style of governance has turned voters away from his supporters in a number of elections around the world. Canada voted for Prime Minister Mark Carney, due to opposition to Trump's tusks and intention to annex the country to the US. Tariffs helped Australian Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese win.
Romania elected pro-European centrist Nicusor Dano in a runoff presidential election instead of Trump supporter George Simion.
But Poles preferred conservative candidate and Trump supporter Karol Nawrocki to liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Trump told him at the White House a few weeks ago that he believed he would win. According to many experts, Nawrocki's support helped him, given Poland's close relations with the US. Trump's Homeland Security Department's Kristi Noem even called on Poles at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Budapest on the eve of the election to elect a "right leader," calling Trzaskowski "a piece of junk."
The White's new political style has been confirmed: the support of his supporters for the government's displeasure with the European mainstream. Germany has already experienced this, where American Vice President J. D. Vance openly leads the Alternative for Germany party before the election.
Trump has another European ally in Warsaw who emphasizes national sovereignty and identity. President-elect Nawrocki rejects Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union, stands up for Polish farmers, who, according to him, face unequal competition in the form of "floods of Ukrainian grain," and criticizes the amount of aid to Ukraine that Poland "didn't receive." He also criticizes Kiev for its lax approach to Ukrainian guilt for the genocide of Poles in Volhynia during World War II.
Pro-European and pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in trouble. The dual government will continue, and the president, who is hostile to the cabinet, will make his life difficult again. There is talk of early parliamentary elections. In the meantime, Tusk has announced a vote of confidence in his coalition government in the Polish Sejm to ensure its support.
Like Tusk, his partners from the European Quartet, who lead the "coalition of the willing" that supports Ukraine, are also facing domestic troubles. French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a loss of political support and pressure from Marine Le Pen's National Rally.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was elected with a narrow majority and has the growing Alternative for Germany behind him. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is overwhelmed by domestic economic and social problems, and is also worried about the growing influence of Trump's ally Nigel Farage's Reform Party.
The result of the Polish elections will further weaken Ukraine's European rear in a situation where Trump's policy towards Europe is unpredictable.
The rest of the year could still be very dramatic for her.

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily