We see a controlled conflict in Iran

After the Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the intensity of American attacks on Iran and the military counter-response of Tehran intensified. The Gulf states are facing Iranian attacks, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced on Sunday that it would close the strait until further notice. The fragile and in many ways shaky ceasefire that has lasted since April 7 is a thing of the past.

This was confirmed by US President Donald Trump on Friday on the Truth Social network. He said Iran had been unequivocally informed that the ceasefire had ended, although he added that the U.S. had agreed to continue negotiations.

But will they lead to any result in the current situation? Can any peace agreement be reached, as envisaged in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding of June 17th?

The situation around Iran is chaotic. In recent weeks, the ceasefire has coexisted with occasional bombing, the Strait of Hormuz has been declared closed and open at the same time, Trump has claimed that the US has definitely won the war and that negotiations with Iran on a diplomatic settlement of the conflict are heading towards a successful goal. However, there were contradictory signals from Tehran that it wanted him and at the same time that he rejected him.

What is certain is that at the heart of the conflict is Iran's unwillingness to give up its trump card – control of the Strait of Hormuz – which is a huge problem for the US, its allies in the Persian Gulf, and the global economy.

A fortnight ago, the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal stated that Iran is giving Trump a choice: either capitulate to the Iranians or open the Strait of Hormuz by force. This, of course, would require the deployment of US ground troops with the risk of considerable losses, which would be very risky for Trump.

Rather, the state of "neither war nor peace" between the US and Iran will continue. CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton speaks of a "controlled conflict" where both sides do not want to resume full-scale hostilities. Occasional military strikes may alternate with diplomatic negotiations, even if they do not lead to any major breakthrough. And we don't have to be surprised when Trump announces the continuation of successful negotiations, saying that "peace is near", and immediately afterwards blames Tehran for its failure.

At the same time, however, the blockage of the strait is a risk for the global economy. Supply disruptions in energy commodities will drive oil and gas prices higher, fueling inflation and slowing economic growth in both Asia and Europe. All the Gulf states will also lose a lot.

But an unfinished war suits Israel, for which a U.S.-Iranian peace deal would be a strategic defeat.

And Europe? The ongoing uncertainty and instability around Iran is worsening its economic condition and narrowing the space for further military and economic support for Ukraine.

At the same time, it has no influence on the course of the Iranian conflict at all, which is a particularly bitter finding after the NATO summit in Ankara, which was supposed to be a demonstration of its unity. 

Miloš Balabán, Právo Daily